Identifying the Most Effective Model for Understanding the Growth Rate of Government e-Transactions: Brown’s Model of Exponential Smoothing
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.51983/ajcst-2018.7.2.1880Keywords:
Government e-services, e-transaction, time series, exponential smoothing, Brown's model, Brown's double exponential smoothing, growth rate, diffusion, e-GovernanceAbstract
The purpose of this study is to investigate the current status of e-transactions time series growth rate in the state of Jharkhand from January 2013 to 20th May, 2018 to understand the citizen adoption pattern of various e-government services. Government spends lots of money in developing and implementing e-services, but despite spending huge money the adoption rate is low. This study will analyze the adoption rate by using time series models and find the adoption pattern to improve the future adoption rate of e-services. Besides this, the paper will help us to understand whether current e-transaction methods are user friendly or not. Therefore, identify the best model to evaluate the growth rate of e-transactions in the context of government electronic transactions. In this regard, various existing time series models have been evaluated to obtain the result of this study. The paper draws-up the emergent model derived from the analysis. Finally, a framework is suggested to select Brown’s Exponential Smoothing Model as an ideal model for evaluating the growth rate of government e-transaction for the state of Jharkhand. This will help government to recommend and strategize better e-services plan for the state. This research can be used in policy making, strategizing and finding the key to user acceptance of innovation in technology in government electronic transaction with the help of Brown’s Exponential Smoothing as it can reduce the impacts of seasonal factors.
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